Hans Sanderson (Aarhus University, Denmark), Richard Wenning (Wenning Environmental, US), Theodore Tomasi (Integral Consulting Corp, US), Viktor Komorin (Ukrainian Scientific Centre of Ecology of the Sea UkrSCES), Andriy Grafov (Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission Secretariat, Finland), Oksana Abduloieva (Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, Ukraine)
Mar. Pollut. Bull. (SSRN preprint, March 02). https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6331723
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ABSTRACT
The Russian–Ukrainian war has heightened concerns about the environmental impacts of military activities in Ukraine’s Black Sea and Azov Sea territorial waters. These impacts include contamination from corrosion of unexploded ordnance (UXO), naval mines, munitions debris, and sunken vessels, as well as the release of fuels, metals, explosive residues, and toxic combustion byproducts. The presence of unexploded marine and aerial drones and cruise missiles adds new complexities to armed conflict at sea. Such debris and contaminants pose significant risks to coastal and marine ecosystems in Ukraine’s territorial waters, which are already stressed by eutrophication, overfishing, invasive species, and climate change. This paper describes a decision-making framework for assessing environmental damages in the Black and Azov Seas attributable to the war. The framework integrates two environmental liability models, the U.S. Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) and the European Union Environmental Liability Directive (ELD), adapted to the context of war and guided by principles of International Humanitarian Law. An initial desktop pre-assessment is the first step, involving the collection of existing data, the establishment of pre-conflict baseline conditions, and the determination of preliminary estimates of injuries and damage to marine and coastal environments. This process informs subsequent steps that address data gaps, verify resource injuries, support detailed damage assessments, and define the scope of recovery and restoration. The combined NRDA–ELD approach focuses on sustainability and aims to prevent a net loss of ecosystem service value relative to pre-conflict conditions in the Black Sea.
